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Turkey: I/P falls short of expectations, pointing to a loss of speed

Bu haber 13 Eylül 2021 - 12:00 'de eklendi ve kez görüntülendi.

In July, industrial production in Turkey increased by 8.7% compared to the same month of the previous year, according to calendar adjusted data; Seasonally and calendar adjusted industrial production contracted by 4.2% compared to the previous month. According to unadjusted data, industrial producti…
In July, industrial production in Turkey increased by 8.7% compared to the same month of the previous year, according to calendar adjusted data; Seasonally and calendar adjusted industrial production contracted by 4.2% compared to the previous month. According to unadjusted data, industrial production contracted by 2.3% compared to the same period of the previous year. Our forecast was for industrial production to increase by 15.3% yoy in July, for adjusted data.   The annual rate of increase in industrial production points to a slowdown, as we can see from the periodic data, although the return effect from the negative effects of the last year is still visible. The loss of speed in production is due to the compelling effect of the increase in production costs, if we consider intense natural gas and electricity consumption. In addition to energy, it should be mentioned that the bottlenecks in the supply of raw materials have a compelling effect on the global manufacturing sector. In the industry, which is one of the areas that made the most significant contribution to national income growth in the first two quarters, we observe the effect of deceleration along with the first data of 3Q21. This shows that, in return from the negative effects of the last year, investments continue, but not at the desired level.   When we look at the details; Mining and quarrying decreased by 1.8% on a monthly basis and increased by 15.2% on an annual basis. While a decrease of 5% was observed in the manufacturing industry on a monthly basis, there was a growth of 7.9 on an annual basis. In the electricity, gas and steam group, an increase of 4.5% was observed on a monthly basis, while the annual growth was realized as 11.7%. Energy increased by 2.7% on a monthly basis. Capital goods contracted by 11.6%, durable consumption goods by 7.3%, intermediate goods by 3.5% and non-durable consumer goods by 1.7%. Looking at the annual changes in the related items; Intermediate goods increased by 13.6%, energy by 10.8%, non-durable goods by 8.8% and durable goods by 4.6%. Capital goods contracted by 2.5%.   When we pay attention to domestic and foreign demand conditions and cost factors; In the remaining months, it seems likely that the rapid image of the previous months will slow down. Growth in the industry can continue based on exports, because foreign demand conditions are still good enough. On the other hand, the contraction experienced in the domestic market and supply of goods may constitute the main lines of the slowdown. Domestic macroeconomic variables, especially inflation and interest rate, create uncertainty over both financing costs and production costs. Increases in energy costs also create externality effects for the industry. In terms of long-term, we consider structural measures such as technological progress, specialization in strategic sectors, transition to green economy, import substitution and increasing local weight as factors that need to be addressed to support sustainable growth at this stage. In the economy, which is expected to grow by more than 8% this year, we attach importance to minimizing the effects of externalities and ensuring stability in terms of sustainable growth equivalent to development. Kaynak Tera Yatırım Hibya Haber Ajansı